Lecture by Professor Omar Hasan Kasule Sr. to Year
3 Semester 2 PPSD Session on April 1, 2008
Confounding is mixing up of effects.
Confounding bias arises when the
disease-exposure relationship is disturbed by an extraneous factor called the confounding variable.
The confounding variable is not
actually involved in the exposure-disease relationship. It is however predictive of disease but is unequally distributed between
exposure groups.
Being related both to the disease
and the risk factor, the confounding variable could lead to a spurious apparent relation between disease and exposure if it
is a factor in the selection of subjects into the study.
A confounder must fulfil the following
criteria: relation to both disease and exposure, not being part of the causal pathway, being a true risk factor for the disease,
being associated to the exposure in the source population, and being not affected by either disease or exposure.
Prevention of confounding at the
design stage by eliminating the effect of the confounding factor can be achieved using 4 strategies: pair-matching, stratification,
randomisation, and restriction.
Confounding can be treated at
the analysis stage by various adjustment methods (both non-multivariate and multi-variate). Non-multivariate treatment of
confounding employs standardization and stratified Mantel-Haenszel analysis.
Multi-variate treatment of confounding
employs multivariate adjustment procedures: multiple linear regression, linear discriminant function, and multiple logistic
regression.
Care must be taken to deal only with
true confounders. Adjusting for non-confounders reduces the precision of the study.